SMFS’ Market Outlook Synopsis & The Path Forward – January 2020
Since our last review in September 2019, the market scenario has improved even though the economy is still struggling. Last year, the majority of gains in the Equity indices were only from 8-10 companies that were performing well. But finally, over the last one month or so, the rally is becoming broader-based and the laggard small cap & mid cap shares are finally catching up.
Looking at all the asset classes –
Gold after 7 years, has finally had a good year giving 20%+ return and its near-term trend is likely to remain upward.
Property prices in major cities seem to have bottomed out but there is hardly any uptick.
Debt is still going through a tough patch – Bank/Corporate FD rates have gone down and broadly long-term debt mutual funds are still under-performing.
Equity has had an interesting year. Over the last 12 months –
- Sensex is 14.62%
- Nifty is 12.45%
- Midcap index is 4.9%
- Small cap index is 0.23%
Going forward, we expect the markets to be volatile and hopefully the economy should recover over the next 6-9 months. With the low base effect kicking in, company results April onwards should at the very least improve on a year to year basis.
So, just keep in mind that you are investing for the long term based on your goals and the sound principles of asset allocation (not on short term market scenarios). Equity is still the best asset class for long term time horizons. So please continue with your SIPs.
For any lump sum investments, we recommend doing a Liquid to Equity, weekly systematic transfer plan over the next 6 months.
But above all, just stick with your Asset Allocation and do not get swayed by the negative market sentiments into any knee jerk reactions.
Always remember, correct asset allocation is the key TOWARDS A SECURE FUTURE.